Macroeconomic Frameworks - Fiscal Year 2026
Algeria
Macroeconomic Frameworks
The mission team focused on further developing and operationalizing the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) at the Bank of Algeria (BA) during 19-30 October. The foreign sector of the BA’s Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) and real exchange rate concept were extended to effective terms. To further enrich internal communications, disseminate analytical work and gather timely feedback, the team supported BA staff in presenting the latest model extension and real-time forecasts within an interdepartmental meeting.
Egypt
Macroeconomic Frameworks (June 15-26)
This was the second in a series of technical assistance (TA) missions to assist the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) in upgrading its Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS), including modernizing the CBE’s short-term forecasting tools and Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). The mission expanded the QPM with CPI disaggregation, introduced additional nowcasting models, and estimated the QPM parameters with Bayesian techniques.
Assisting the Central Bank of Egypt in upgrading its existing Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) (November 4-13)
This mission was the third in a series of ICD TA missions aimed at assisting the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) in upgrading its existing Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS). The CBE is aiming at modernizing its macroeconomic framework, including technical aspects of their short-term forecasting tools and Quarterly Projection Models (QPM). The April 2025 scoping mission found that the CBE’s FPAS practice and processes are generally well aligned with best international practices but recommended expanding the set of nowcasting models and extending the baseline QPM.
Assisting the Central Bank of Egypt in upgrading its existing Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) (January 28 - February 4)
This mission was the fourth in a series of ICD TA missions aimed at assisting the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) in upgrading its existing Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS). It aimed to advance the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE)’s forecasting and analytical capabilities, with a particular emphasis on integrating an external sector module into the existing Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). First, the mission reviewed progress with the introduction of multiple sector Phillips Curves (food, non-food, and administered prices), the integration of the fiscal block, and the recalibration and Bayesian estimation of the models’ parameters, which were the main tasks of previous missions. Second, it included an external block to the existing QPM. Third, the mission team assisted CBE staff with producing model-based scenarios and risk analysis through hands-on sessions.
